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Eminent Domain Stuff

New London Update (2/24/06)
Coverage of the Rally at New London's City Hall (w/ pics)

Friday, January 28, 2005


Global Warming...Honesty

With all the media hype for nearly every study that claims we're about to spontaneously combust as a direct result of my driving an SUV, you'd think NYC would be underwater as we speak. So, it was actually quite refreshing to hear some honesty from a researcher who just completed the most sophisticated computer atmospheric modeling experiment to date. But, before we get to the honesty, the unfortunate part is that the title for the article in the journal Science is Climate Modelers See Scorching Future as a Real Possibility. Where do they get that idea? Well, the computer model's output was summarized as:

None of the simulations had a climate sensitivity less than 2ºC, in line with expectations. And most simulations did not fall far from the model's sensitivity of 3.4ºC when run with no parameters perturbed. But the inevitable long tail of results on the high-sensitivity side ran out to 11ºC, 2ºC farther than any kind of study before it.
So, we're headed for some serious heat, huh? Well, may not. Remember the honesty I mentioned? Here's what one of the scientists involved in the study had to say:

"We can't yet give a probability for our results," says Stainforth. "Our [high-end] results are very sensitive to our prior assumptions," such as which parameters are perturbed and by how much. Previous studies suffer from the same limitations, he says.
Let's go over that first part one more time. "We can't yet give a probability for our results." Really. What, then, is the importance of your study, Doctor? And more to the point: What, then, is the reason for the headline "Climate Modelers See Scorching Future as a Real Possibility", editors of Science? Shouldn't you have also included, ...But Then Again, They Also See Mild Temperature Increases, Or Even Decreases, As Equally Possible, Considering That The "results are very sensitive to our prior assumptions".

But hey, I'm sure that nobody's got an axe to grind.

Yeah. Right.


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