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Eminent Domain Stuff

New London Update (2/24/06)
Coverage of the Rally at New London's City Hall (w/ pics)

Monday, June 28, 2004


Abortion And Elections

For starters, I find this analysis quite stomach-turning for reasons that should become obvious shortly. Personal feelings aside, the cold, hard facts presented with this analysis raise some intriguing issues.

Larry Eastland, writing for Opinion Journal, makes the claim that abortion is robbing Liberals (and Democrats) of voters. What's happening? The voters are being aborted. This analysis has some potential to carry serious consequences for Dems/Libs now and in the future. However...

The one caveat I would add to this analysis has to do with the initial data collection. All of this is based on presenting the following question to people:

As far as you know, has anyone close to you had an abortion?" The emphasis here was on "close to you"
The question was framed in this manner...

...in order to bring to mind only those people inside the respondents' circle of socio-demographically homogeneous family and friends.
Given this methodology, it is actually correct to conclude that:

Democrats/Liberals tend to know of more people having abortions 'close to them' than do Republicans/Conservatives.

This is not the same thing as:

More Democrats/Liberals have abortions than do Republicans/Conservatives.

Why do I make this distinction? It seems possible that a woman having an abortion would be more likely to tell someone the truth if she thought that person would be receptive to (and even agree with) the decision. And, conversely, she might be less willing to fess up to a person who would not agree with her decision. This introduces a serious potential for bias (albeit honest bias) into the collected data.

While not perfect, the premise behind the methodology does make sense to me...it's just that the scientist in me can't let them slide by too easily.

With that caveat in mind, check out the complete analysis. Here's a bit:

In the actual popular vote for president in the 2000 general election in Florida, George W. Bush was declared the winner by 537 votes. But if the 260,962 Missing Voters of Florida had been present to vote, Al Gore would have won by 45,366 votes. Missing Voters--through decisions made in the 1970s and early 1980s, encouraged and emboldened by the feminist movement at the height of its power--altered the outcome of the U.S. presidency a generation later, in a way proponents of legal abortion could not have imagined.

Examining these results through a partisan political lens, the Democrats have given the Republicans a decided advantage in electoral politics, one that grows with each election. Moreover, it is an advantage that they can never regain. Even if abortion were declared illegal today, and every single person complied with the decision, the advantage would continue to grow until the 2020 election, and would stay at that level throughout the voting lifetime of most Americans living today.
Interesting (again, in a sick sort of way), wouldn't you say?

Give the whole thing a read.


Opinion Journal has posted responses to this article here. In their infinite wisdom they have elected to not use my response. But lucky for you, you've got my analysis right here!

The responses they did post range from serious to actually pretty entertaining. Here's one on the serious side:

First Words--the Real Loss
Keith Russell - Spring, Texas

I had never thought of abortion from a statistical side.

To me it still has to be measured in how many giggles were lost or how many first steps not taken. It is a matter of first words, lost teeth (baby teeth), best friends, first bike rides, or games of t-ball. Its about paper hearts on father's day that say I love you daddy in a way that a typewriter or greeting card never can.

A child is God's greatest gift and I truly feel for all of those people who have denied themselves the experience. The measurement of lost lives in the terms of votes changed or dollars saved is truly baffling to me. Thank you for reminding me of how important my son is to me , perhaps you should get over the bloodsport of politics and think about what a life is really about.
And here's my, admittedly irreverent, favorite:

They Make Up for It
Michael Singer - Troy, Mich.

Yes, but think of all the "extra" votes routinely added by the Democratic Party. There are dead people, felons, illegal aliens, twice registered voters, etc. to pad those voter roles in Democratic favor.

Update 2:

CJ (of The Unmentionables) pointes out a post on an article on a similar topic from the Calagry Sun. Check 'em out.


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